KLCI projection in 2011

Banyak orang bertanya saya ke mana kah arah tuju KLCI untuk 2011. Bukankah market sudah terlalu tinggi sekarang ? Bagaimana pula kesannya setelah Chinese New Year ? Ada juga yang berkata General Election is coming dan macam-macam lagi. Itu adalah perkara biasa yang saya dengar dari klien-klien saya. Biarlah saya memberi pandangan dalam persoalan ini satu persatu : 1) Daripada sumber-sumber yang boleh dipercayai, General Election tidak akan diadakan tahun  2011 kerana beberapa sebab.Yang pertama adalah last election was held in 2008. Ini baru tahun ketiga dalam penggal ini. Adalah merugikan untuk mengadakan election sekarang kerana masih punya 2 tahun untuk memerintah. Tambahan lagi imej pemerintah yang semakin baik sekarang ini dan momentum kemenangan dalam pilihanraya kecil pasti satu kelegaan buat pemerintah untuk memperkukuhkan lagi jentera mereka sebelum General Election nanti. Paling cepat maybe 2012. So 2011 masih menjanjikan kestabilan market kita kerana hampir tiada local event yang mampu menggugat kestabilannya. Ketika saya menulis blog ini rantau Arab sedang bergolak dengan cubaan penggulingan pemerintah di beberapa negara namun KLCI masih steady.  2) Seperti yang saya kongsi, market bergerak diatas paksi kitarannya. Sekarang market kita masih dalam keadaan bullish mode. Jadi walau apa pun yang  berlaku, KLCI akan terus mendaki sehingga ke puncak yang dijangka sekitar 2013. Correction is normal but there would be no crisis. 3) ETP program dan penyenaraian beberapa syarikat ke BSKL adalah satu pakej rangsangan ekonomi yang sangat kuat dalam negara. Ia akan memastikan perkembangan ekonomi terutama dalam bidang construction dan Oil n Gas. Selain itu ia akan mewujudkan lebih banyak peluang pekerjaan dan pengagihan wang ke semua peringkat akan meningkatkan buying power yang akan menjana pelbagai industri. Saya juga turut mendapatkan KLCI index target 2011 yang dikeluarkan oleh beberapa fund manager : Deutsche Bank AG/17 January 2011 FBM KLCI index target of 1,790 (December 2011) Further upside risk to earnings in 2011 as commodity prices stay lofty, M&A activity accelerates further, and earnings from offshore entities have an impact. Maybank, 3/1/2011 Business Times FBMKLCI to hit 1,710 by year-end 2011 FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index. The 30-member index will rally on stronger corporate earnings and liquidity flows into emerging markets, Maybank. Citigroup: BizTime 07/01/2011  FBMKLCI may hit 1,650 by year-end 2011 Malaysia's KLCI index may reach 1,650 by the end of 2011 on increased liquidity, Citigroup Inc said. The government is "likely to provide liquidity" to the stock market ahead of the Sarawak state election and possible national general election, according to the report led by analyst Yong Yin Ng. -- Bloomberg UOB   05/01/2010 FBMKLCI may rise above 1,781 in H1: Malaysia's benchmark stock index may "stampede" beyond 1,781 in the first half of the year, bolstered by an inflow of foreign funds and rising expectations of an early general election, according to UOB Kay Hian Group. A stronger ringgit, higher commodity prices and a "firm" economic outlook will also help boost the stock market, Vincent Khoo, an analyst at OUB Kay Hian said in a report today. Still, the market faces a "wild ride" as the upside potential may be "lassoed" in the second half of the year, bringing his target for the index to end at 1,654 by the end of the year, he said. -- Bloomberg HwangDBS  sees KLCI hitting 1,730 by year-end 2011 Malaysia's benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index is expected to rise to 1,730 by the end of the year because of "positive" domestic factors, according to HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd. - Bloomberg ECM Libra FBM KLCI to hit 1,650 at end-2011: ECM 2/12/2010 ECM Libra maintains its base-case FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) target of 1,480 and 1,650 at the end of next year though the FBM KLCI retraced by about three per cent since hitting a high of 1,528.01 three weeks ago. While the market seems to be fairly valued, it is still positive in the near term as foreign net equity inflows remain strong, said ECM LIbra. "We are unfazed by it and believe the market will continue its uptrend in a more meaningful manner in the first quarter of 2011. "This is driven by resilient domestic consumption, strong foreign net equity inflows, merger and acquisition activities and pre-election play," it said. In the best scenario, ECM Libra said FBM KLCI could potentially touch 1,870 by end of next year 2011 based on 17 times should the current liquidity-driven rally continue into 2011. -- Bernama Jika melihat kepada analyst projection, dapat dirumuskan bahawa kita masih punya gap to gain at least 10% to 20% more this year.